SpaceX-Tesla Merger Talk Builds as Kalshi Odds Drop to 33%

Speculation that Elon Musk could merge SpaceX with Tesla has intensified following SpaceX’s planned $75 billion IPO. The idea gained traction after Musk’s China trip failed to secure FSD approvals and amid heavy 2026 capex of $25 billion. Recent articles highlight potential synergies in AI and robotics but also flag antitrust risks and governance complexity. Kalshi prediction-market odds for a merger before May 2027 have fallen from 77% to 33%. Tesla shares trade near $422, reflecting ongoing volatility around autonomy timelines and Musk’s expanding empire.