SpaceX Set to Outperform Tesla as Stock Drops 7.5% to $393

On July 3, 2026, two reports reaffirmed SpaceX as the stronger near-term Musk-linked play versus Tesla. Tesla trades at $393.45 after a 7.49% decline, with Polymarket assigning only a 30.5% chance of reaching $400 by month-end. Traders are focused on the July 22 Q2 earnings and potential vehicle-margin pressure, despite Q1 revenue of $22.387 billion (up 15.78% YoY), non-GAAP EPS of $0.41 beating consensus, and automotive gross margin expanding to 21.1%. SpaceX benefits from its recent IPO, institutional inflows, and hyperscaler contracts supporting $18 billion trailing revenue (up 33%). The consensus view favors SpaceX through July with no imminent earnings risk.