SpaceX may need up to $130B to build a standalone mobile network: Bernstein

SpaceX could face capital expenditures ranging from $50 billion to $130 billion, including spectrum costs, if it decides to construct a standalone terrestrial network for its direct-to-device mobile operations, according to research from Bernstein analysts led by Douglas Harned. Excluding spectrum acquisitions, network infrastructure costs alone are projected between $15 billion and $80 billion, requiring roughly 30,000 to 120,000 macro cell sites based on network density and coverage strategy. Bernstein modeled six potential deployment scenarios, establishing a base case of approximately $70 billion and 57,000 macro sites built over an eight-year timeline to achieve national coverage. The firm highlighted that securing 10 MHz of low-band spectrum, such as Grain's auctioned holdings, could decrease necessary cell sites by roughly 30%. While Elon Musk dismissed rumors of bidding for Grain's spectrum, Bernstein considers access to such assets vital for network viability. Despite the substantial capital requirements, Bernstein maintains a positive long-term outlook for SpaceX, bolstered by its core launch business, orbital data centers, and Starlink broadband growth.