SocGen Raises 2026 Brent to $85, Sees Slow Oil Normalization from Iran Shock

Societe Generale warns the Iran conflict's supply shock—largest since 1956—will keep oil prices elevated through much of 2026, raising its end-year Brent forecast to $85/barrel from $79. WTI has surged 24% and Brent 17% since U.S.-Israel strikes began, driven by Iranian exports plunging from 1.7-2.0m bpd to nearly zero amid shipping, insurance, and port issues. Demand has dipped 3%, but historical benchmarks show disruptions unwind slowly over about 8 months, implying sustained upside risks and volatility.