So how big *was* Bessent’s yentervention?

Financial Times Alphaville analyzed official US Treasury disclosures and weekly foreign exchange reserve statements to assess the scale of the US Treasury's recent intervention in the Japanese yen. While earlier estimates and desk memos hinted at potential operations ranging from $5 billion to $10 billion—or a theoretical maximum of $26.3 billion based on euro reserve holdings—the actual data suggests a much smaller scale. Reviewing the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) financial statements alongside weekly US foreign exchange reserve changes reveals that the intervention was likely conducted in the spot market rather than through forward contracts. After stripping out FX valuation shifts, US euro cash holdings fell by approximately $495 million, while Japanese yen holdings rose by $502 million over the week following the announcement. This suggests a modest intervention of roughly $500 million. Former Treasury official Brad Setser arrived at a similar figure, indicating the Treasury's market footprint was significantly smaller than previously anticipated.