Six Bitcoin Signals Point To A Possible End of the Bear Market

Denny Galindo from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Global Investment Office has identified six historical signals indicating that Bitcoin's bear market could be approaching its conclusion, though several key indicators remain incomplete. Historically, cryptocurrency cycles follow a four-year pattern featuring three years of bull runs followed by 12 to 14 months of bear markets. The current calendar aligns closely with previous 'crypto spring' entry points, sitting roughly 17 months prior to the next halving and 11 months following the previous market peak, alongside typical structural stress on exchanges. However, key on-chain metrics show clear divergence from historical cycle bottoms. Bitcoin's recent drawdown reached only 53% compared to the 77% to 84% drops observed in past bear markets. Additionally, while mining difficulty has declined, it has yet to rebound, and the thermocap multiple stands at 13 times rather than falling below the historical sub-10 threshold. Compounding this uncertainty is the rise of artificial intelligence as the dominant market narrative competing for risk-on capital, suggesting that while bottoming signals are developing, market participants should remain cautious.