Silver's fair value is closer to $40, but remains supported by higher gold prices

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen says silver’s modelled fair value is nearer $40/oz, well below the current trading range around $78–$80. The bank attributes silver’s strength largely to momentum from gold rather than fundamentals, and while acknowledging downside risk, remains constructive: Commerzbank expects Fed rate cuts in H2 to lift gold above $5,000/oz and push silver to about $90/oz. The note implies silver could slip if gold’s safe-haven bid fades, but persistent central-bank demand for gold should keep supporting both metals, leaving silver biased higher despite an apparent valuation gap.