Silver Stalls Near $69 as Deficits Shrink and Banks Trim Targets

Silver remains trapped after a sharp 20% rally from May lows, with prices now pressured by tighter policy, rising yields, and a stronger dollar. The story evolved rapidly as UBS slashed its 2026 supply deficit forecast from 300 million to 60–70 million ounces on May 14, urging volatility sales over directional longs. HSBC followed on May 17–18 by lifting its 2026 average target to $75/oz but capping the year-end at $70 amid sharply narrowing deficits of 73 million ounces in 2026 and just 25 million in 2027. ETF holdings have already fallen ~70 million ounces year-to-date, signaling fading speculative interest, while the iShares Silver Trust trades near $69.45 after a 35% plunge from 2025 peaks.