Schrödinger’s ceasefire

Reuters Morning Bid notes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East — a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and reciprocal Iranian tanker seizures — have pushed Brent crude back above $100/barrel, stalling a recent global equity advance. The supply shock is boosting U.S. energy producers even as it raises inflation risks that could complicate the Fed’s policy path ahead of next week’s meeting and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process. Higher energy costs may weigh on Big Tech profits (Tesla flagged rising 2026 capex) and prolong rate pressure, while U.S. retail sales in March showed resilience despite higher gasoline prices. The piece warns of broader commodity and metals disruptions (aluminium, copper, nickel) and argues the conflict could both accelerate renewables and, paradoxically, increase long-run fossil fuel demand through fragmentation and energy-security driven inefficiencies.