S&P revises Mexico’s outlook to ’negative’ on debt, growth concerns

S&P Global Ratings on May 12, 2026, revised Mexico’s sovereign outlook to “negative” from “stable”, citing weak growth, rigid spending and the likelihood of continued fiscal support for state energy firms (Pemex and CFE) that could accelerate public debt accumulation and raise interest burdens. While the sovereign ratings were held at BBB (foreign) and BBB+ (local), S&P warned of a higher risk premium for Mexican assets as it forecasts a 4.8% of GDP general government deficit in 2026 and net debt rising to about 54% of GDP by 2029 (from 49% in 2025). The move is likely to weigh on the peso and Mexican sovereign bonds, increasing volatility and investor risk aversion toward Mexico.