S&P 500 Up 13% Six Months Into Iran War, and History Says That's Normal

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices following U.S. military action in Iran that started in February, the S&P 500 has demonstrated notable resilience, advancing 13% over the six months following the outbreak of the conflict. This upward momentum reflects historical patterns identified across 23 major U.S. military operations dating back to World War II, where equity markets have consistently trended higher over extended timeframes. According to historical data compiled by market strategists, the S&P 500 averages gains of 3% at three months, 7% at six months, and 12% at one year following the onset of conflict, expanding to a 46% gain over three years. Over the full 23-conflict dataset, long-term multi-year declines were observed only once following the 1999 Kosovo intervention, primarily driven by the subsequent dot-com bubble collapse. With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust up approximately 12.1% year-to-date and trading near record highs, market watchers anticipate that a formal conclusion to hostilities in Iran could serve as a catalyst for equities to retest and surpass recent peaks.