S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Growth Expectations Surge to Record 26.2%

Consensus S&P 500 earnings growth expectations have jumped to 26.2% heading into Q2 reporting, the strongest pre-earnings estimate outside recession recoveries. This marks a sharp acceleration from the prior high of 12.2% in Q3 2013 and exceeds the +24% level seen just days earlier. While a June 29 analysis flagged that much of the recent upgrade stemmed from one-time items and warned of unsustainability, the latest data show upgrades driven by strong tech guidance plus macro tailwinds including rebounding PMIs, a weaker dollar, and higher oil prices. Equity positioning remains below average, suggesting further upside if results confirm the forecasts.