S&P 500 Nears Record 7,400 on Iran Deal Hopes, Blowout Payrolls; Bear Odds Low

The S&P 500 trades near record highs around 7,400 with just a 20% bear market probability amid U.S.-Iran deal optimism, April payrolls adding 115k jobs versus 65k expected, and oil dipping to $95/bbl from $110 peaks. A brutal 7% Q1 plunge—the worst since 2022—followed Iran war escalation spiking Brent to $144/bbl, but April 8 cease-fire crashed oil to $94/bbl, sparking a 10% monthly rally on Magnificent Seven earnings records. May volatility ensued with oil rebounding on stalled talks, Fed dissent resisting cuts before Kevin Warsh's chair transition, and 23% market breadth exposing cracks despite data resilience.