S&P 500 Holds Near 7,400 With Modest 7,750 Year-End Target

The S&P 500 trades around 7,400 after an 8.5% YTD gain through mid-May, fueled by strong Q1 earnings and a record April rally. Bullish forecasts intensified with Ed Yardeni lifting his 2026 target to 8,250 and Mike Wilson projecting 8,300 within 12 months, while Mary Ann Bartels sees 10,000-13,000 in three years. However, stretched valuations, record profit margins of 13.4%, and an RSI above 75 now signal potential 10-15% summer corrections toward 6,850-6,900. The latest analysis models a more modest year-end finish near 7,750 if earnings moderate and multiples contract.