S&P 500 Holds Near 7,354 Amid AI Capex Bubble Warnings

The S&P 500 has consolidated near 7,354 after pulling back from its early-June peak of 7,620, remaining trapped in the 7,200-7,400 range through early July. Gains continue to be driven by a narrow group of AI and energy names, with the top 10 holdings now exceeding 40% of index value and more than 490 stocks flat or lower year-to-date. Hyperscalers are directing up to 75% of operating cash flow to AI capex, pushing the Shiller P/E to 40-41 and prompting repeated comparisons to dot-com extremes. While Barclays raised its year-end target to 7,800 on expected 24% earnings growth, long-term warnings of higher rates, elevated capex intensity, and bubble risks dominate sentiment through late June.