S&P 500 Earnings: A Broken Record - Positive Revisions, Revenue Growth Worth Noting Again

The S&P 500’s forward 4-quarter EPS estimate rose to $342.49 from $340.96, leaving the forward PE unchanged at 20.9x and the index earnings yield steady at 4.78%. Analysts project robust revenue growth in 2026 — quarterly estimates above 8.6%, well above pre-COVID and recent averages — driven by effects of the OBBBA tax bill and heavy AI-related tech capex. Energy is expected to see a substantial comeback (2026 EPS growth ~43.9%), nearly matching tech (~44.3%), though investor attention and bond markets appear to underappreciate the sector. Overall, the data point to earnings-driven strength supporting current S&P valuations and suggest potential sector opportunities (notably energy) even as multiples remain elevated.