S&P 500 CAPE at 40.44 Signals Crash Risk as Trump Posts Drive Wild Swings

The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio reached 40.44 as of April 17, 2026—far above its 155-year average of 17.36—flagging heightened crash risks amid Trump-era volatility where his posts and policies fueled the index's five best and worst days since inauguration, with gains of 18.5% masking a 2.7% drop excluding top days. Warnings escalated from Iran Strait disruptions pushing March inflation to 3.3% (Cleveland nowcast 3.6%), record-low consumer sentiment at 47.6, and gas at $4.05/gallon, compounding historically high valuations seen only six times in 155 years, each preceding major drawdowns. Despite AI strength and $1T buybacks, analysts urge caution on this fragile bull market.