Russia Cuts 2026 Oil Output Forecast to 511M Tonnes Amid Sanctions, Attacks

Russia's economy ministry cut its 2026 oil and condensate production forecast to 511 million tonnes (10.22 mbpd) from 525.2 million tonnes, leaving it flat with 2025's 511.4 million tonnes, as detailed in a morning document and afternoon update. Crude exports were trimmed to 237.2 million tonnes this year (down 4.5 million tonnes) and 227.4 million tonnes next year (down 16.5 million tonnes), citing Western sanctions, Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure, higher military spending, and interest-rate pressures. The revisions signal tighter supply prospects and fiscal strain—oil/gas taxes fund ~25% of federal revenue—lifting Brent/WTI prices ~3.7%.