Resilient Consumers Key to Skirting a Recession

The article argues that resilient U.S. consumers are a key reason the economy may avoid a recession despite mounting risks from the Iran and Ukraine wars, higher energy costs, and elevated consumer credit. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned recession is possible and noted near-term inflationary pressure from AI implementation; Oxford Economics said oil would need to rise much further (to around $190/barrel) to materially raise recession odds. Circana’s analyst estimates roughly a 35% chance of recession versus a 65% chance of skirting one. Retail sales forecasts are modest (Macy’s, Kohl’s, Abercrombie, Walmart) and the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP tracker is around 2–3%, which supports near-term growth. Overall, the piece frames risks as meaningful but balanced by consumer spending resilience, implying mixed market implications for equities and commodities, particularly energy and retail sectors.