Recession odds drop below 20% amid U.S.-Iran peace hopes

Traders on prediction markets have scaled back bets on a U.S. recession this year, with Kalshi’s recession market showing an 18.2% chance on Friday — a decline below 20% — as growing hopes the Iran conflict may be winding down combine with strong corporate earnings. The drop in recession odds has supported risk appetite, reflected in S&P 500 strength, and reduces near-term tail-risk pricing, potentially easing pressure on equities and risk-sensitive assets if the geostrategic outlook continues to improve.