RBA Convenes With Markets Expecting Fifth Rate Hike to 4.85 Percent

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate increase on Tuesday, bringing the cash rate to 4.85%. If enacted, the decision would mark the central bank's fifth hike of 2026, lifting borrowing costs to their highest level since 2008. The expected tightening follows third-quarter trimmed mean inflation rising 1.0% against the RBA's 0.8% projection, alongside surging global crude oil prices. Economists warn the move will deepen economic headwinds, with Commonwealth Bank of Australia cutting mid-next year GDP growth forecasts to 1.0% and AMP estimating recession risk at 45%.