RBA Expected to Hold at 4.35% as Westpac Flags August Hikes

Markets now price a near-certain RBA pause at the June 15-16 meeting, with 42 of 45 economists forecasting no change to the 4.35% cash rate. Westpac aligns with the hold but still projects further tightening in August and September after trimming its 2026 headline CPI peak to 4.7% from 5.0%. The mixed backdrop—Q1 GDP at just 0.3%, unemployment at 4.5%, and April inflation easing to 4.2%—leaves the RBA’s post-meeting guidance as the key AUD driver.