Raymond James sees mixed momentum signals in equity markets

Raymond James says North American equity indices show mixed short‑term momentum: the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and TSX Composite have reclaimed their 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, while the Russell 2000 has stalled. The firm views the technical repair—plus sector rotation back into Information Technology, Industrials and Materials—as consistent with Phase 2 of its Market Cycle Model and thinks near‑term pullbacks are opportunities to add cyclical exposure for an intermediate‑term rally that could extend into July. It cautions that a failure to hold above 200‑day MAs, stronger performance from Energy, Materials and Consumer Staples, or a multi‑week break below the 4‑year moving average would signal a shift toward Phase 3 or a secular bear. Overall, the note is constructive on an intermediate horizon but flags clear downside thresholds that would alter the outlook.