Rabobank Sees New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar Rise Later 2026 After Near-Term Pressure

Rabobank anticipates New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar recovery later in 2026 despite near-term downside risks from USD safe-haven flows, with current spot at 0.5850. The story ignited with Q1 CPI holding at 3.1% y/y (0.9% q/q vs 0.8% consensus), driven by 12.5% y/y electricity surges, prompting markets to price over 100bps RBNZ hikes to 3.25%. BBH urged caution on contained core inflation, forecasting a 0.5800-0.6000 range, but Rabobank highlights hawkish RBNZ tone, bullish technicals testing 0.6200 200-day MA, and a 0.6000-0.6300 range next quarter as Fed cuts loom.