Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the cash rate unchanged at its August 11 meeting and remain on hold through the rest of 2026. The bank says growth has slowed, inflation is running below earlier forecasts, the labor market has eased faster, and housing conditions have worsened, reducing the case for more tightening. However, CBA thinks the RBA will keep hawkish language and may still signal willingness to hike again if needed. The key market takeaway is that the decision itself may offer limited immediate direction for AUD/USD, with the bigger focus on updated RBA forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference. CBA sees a higher unemployment forecast and lower inflation projections, which would reinforce expectations for prolonged policy stability. A renewed escalation in Middle East tensions is the main upside inflation risk and could push the RBA to sound more hawkish than current data alone would justify.