Prediction: Wall Street's Historic Iran War Rally Is About to Receive a Much-Needed Dose of Reality

The article argues that recent record highs for U.S. major indices — led by a 13-day Nasdaq win streak and S&P 500/Dow closing records — were driven by positive Iran ceasefire news and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which eased immediate oil-supply fears. However, the author warns that persistent inflation (Cleveland Nowcast and BLS data) and sticky tariffs make Fed rate cuts unlikely and could unwind the rally, creating downside risk for richly valued U.S. equities. Market probabilities from the Atlanta Fed suggest a higher chance of a June rate hike than cuts, implying investors should temper expectations despite recent geopolitically driven gains.