Prediction: The Fate of the Trump Bull Market Has Been Sealed by One Presidential Decision

The article argues that President Trump’s decision to authorize military action against Iran and the subsequent shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a major energy shock that is rekindling inflation. Rising oil and fuel prices have pushed 12‑month U.S. inflation materially higher, removing incentives for the Fed to cut rates and increasing the likelihood of tighter policy under Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh. Given historically rich equity valuations, the combination of structural inflation, higher interest‑rate risk, and lagging business cost pressures could end the Trump-era bull market and expose expensive indexes to a meaningful pullback. The piece highlights the S&P 500’s lofty CAPE, recent index gains, and the Fed’s policy pivot as the primary channels through which the presidential decision affects markets.