Prediction markets prepare to invade one of crypto's biggest and riskiest trades

Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are preparing to offer perpetual futures (“perps”) — highly leveraged, no-expiration crypto derivatives that have driven much of offshore crypto volume — potentially bringing a large, risky product onshore. Perps already account for over 70% of centralized-exchange volume; CryptoQuant data shows $61.7 trillion in perps traded in 2025 (up 29% year-over-year) versus $18.6 trillion in spot (up 9%). The move could increase volatility and tie prediction markets more closely to mainstream finance, but analysts say it’s unlikely to immediately displace incumbents such as Coinbase and Robinhood. Regulatory posture matters: the CFTC has signaled it’s working to onshore “true perpetual derivatives,” which could enable U.S. versions with different safeguards (e.g., avoiding auto-deleveraging). Key risks include manipulation, insider exploitation in prediction markets and liquidation cascades typical of leveraged perps. Overall, the development is a notable market-structure story with mixed implications — potential growth and competition, but heightened volatility and regulatory scrutiny.