Polymarket Prices 67% Odds of Rising 2026 Tech Layoffs as Meta Cuts Loom

Polymarket traders are now pricing a 67% probability that U.S. tech layoffs will increase in 2026 versus 2025 levels. The move follows reports of historic lows in Meta employee morale ahead of planned May 20 reductions that will eliminate roughly 8,000 roles and freeze 6,000 openings. Despite posting strong Q1 revenue of $56.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year, Meta shares fell about 10% after the company raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance to $125–$145 billion. The prediction market also cites recent job cuts at LinkedIn, Cisco, Cloudflare, Coinbase and Oracle. The contract closes February 28, 2027 and settles against BLS Information-sector data through June 2027, highlighting sustained investor concern over AI-driven restructuring pressures.