Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 15% of Being Passed in 2026

Prediction market odds for the enactment of the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) in 2026 have collapsed sharply, raising concerns over lingering regulatory uncertainty for the digital assets market. On Polymarket, the implied probability of the bill passing in 2026 dropped from an 82% high in February to between 13% and 15%. Kalshi shows a similar trend, pricing the odds of passage at approximately 22%, even as the likelihood of a Senate vote occurring before October 1 stands high at 91%. The regulatory standstill centers on a pivotal September 15 cloture vote, where 60 votes are required to overcome procedural hurdles in the Senate. Lawmakers remain divided over critical components, including stablecoin yield provisions, decentralized finance (DeFi) oversight, and anti-money-laundering requirements. Bitcoin traded slightly lower near $78,646 amid the fading regulatory momentum. Analysts point to the $76,000 to $78,000 zone as critical near-term support, warning that failure to clear the procedural vote on September 15 could push comprehensive market-structure legislation into 2027 and trigger further downside testing below $76,000.