OPEC+ Set to Raise July Output Target by 188,000 bpd Despite Hormuz Closure

OPEC+ is expected to approve a modest 188,000 bpd increase to its July production target at the June 7 meeting of seven core members. The decision follows the UAE’s abrupt exit from OPEC on May 1 and Nigeria’s push to add 100,000 bpd amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict. Group output has already plunged to 33.19 million bpd in April from 42.77 million bpd in February, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near zero. The nominal quota hike is viewed largely as a political signal that could exert downward pressure on prices once the Strait reopens, even as the 2 million bpd cuts agreed in 2022 stay in place through 2026.