One Wall Street Analyst Just Said Tesla Stock Could Be Worth $840: Time to Buy?

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco has raised his bull-case price target for Tesla (TSLA) to $840 from $820 while reiterating an Equal-Weight rating and a $400 base-case target. The modest 2.4% increase in the bull scenario highlights the underappreciated long-term commercial potential of Tesla's Semi truck and autonomous software ecosystem. According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, Tesla could potentially deploy over 80,000 autonomous Semi trucks by 2040. Because commercial trucks travel significantly higher mileage than passenger vehicles, each autonomous Semi could generate up to $18,000 per month in Full Self-Driving (FSD) recurring software revenue, translating to more than $17 billion annually in high-margin income. Visible Alpha consensus estimates project Semi production ramping from 4,000 units in 2027 to 12,000 in 2028. However, Tesla's valuation remains elevated at around 200 times estimated 2026 earnings, making the stock heavily dependent on successful execution in robotics, Cybercab robotaxis, and FSD regulatory approvals.