Oil Surge Lifts Canada March CPI to 2.4% y/y with Record 21% Pump Price Jump

Higher oil prices propelled Canadian headline CPI to 2.4% y/y in March 2025, with pump prices soaring 21%—the largest increase on record—and energy prices up 3.9% y/y from -9.3% prior. Initial data revealed energy drove ~60% of the monthly CPI rise, including gasoline +8.7% m/m and natural gas +5.2% m/m, amid global crude volatility and supply tightness. While core inflation eased to ~2.2-2.3% y/y, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 2.25% and monitor oil's impact, keeping upside pressure on WLDOIL amid bullish energy outlook.