Oil Holds Near $72 as Goldman Lifts Long-Term Forecast on Security Premium

WTI crude stabilized near $72 per barrel in mid-July after plunging from June peaks above $100. Geopolitical fears over the Strait of Hormuz lifted prices in May-June, but a U.S.-Iran deal reopened shipping lanes and erased the risk premium. Analysts slashed 2027 forecasts, with Goldman cutting Brent to $75 and JPMorgan to $63 on expectations of a 4 million bpd oversupply. U.S. driving season demand is now providing support, yet Eni’s CEO warned prices could exceed $100 next year if Middle East tensions persist. Goldman then upgraded its long-dated assumption by $9 to $76 citing a higher structural security premium.