Oil Eyes $120+ Breakout as Fuel Shortages Loom Post-UAE OPEC Exit

WTI trades at ~$104 and Brent ~$113 after a pullback, poised for breakout above $110–$120 amid growing fuel shortage risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions and dwindling global stockpiles. Prices exploded from $81–$84 in early March on US-Iran conflict, Gulf attacks slashing Persian Gulf output 57%, and record Q1 gains—Brent +$57.50 (+94%), WTI +$43.96 (+77%)—fueled by 11–12M bpd inventory draws. UAE's May 1 OPEC exit ignited fresh volatility, with JPMorgan forecasting $120–$130 near-term and $150+ if disruptions persist into mid-May.