NZIER Shadow Board Recommends RBNZ Raise Official Cash Rate to 3.00%

A majority of the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommends that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lift its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% from 2.75% at its upcoming review. Members cited persistent upside inflation risks from rising global energy costs, elevated core inflation, and recent New Zealand dollar depreciation. However, the panel remains divided on the trajectory beyond the immediate hike, with preferred 12-month OCR projections spanning 3.00% to 4.00% amid concerns over softening domestic demand and a cooling labor market.