NZD/USD Price Forecast: Hits four-week top on hawkish RBNZ; eyes 0.5810-0.5820 confluence

NZD/USD surged to a near four-week high after hawkish remarks from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway increased expectations for additional rate hikes in New Zealand. The pair also benefited from a softer US dollar, as traders paused after a two-day USD rally ahead of US CPI inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony. Technically, the pair has reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June decline, with MACD turning positive and RSI improving, signaling strengthening momentum. However, the article suggests fresh bullish positioning may be more convincing only if NZD/USD breaks above the 0.5810-0.5820 resistance zone, which aligns with the 50% retracement and 200-day SMA. A move through that area could open the door to 0.5853 and higher targets, while failure could send the pair back toward 0.5767 support and potentially 0.5628.