NZD/USD Bears Await RBNZ Verdict After Relief Rally

NZD/USD is entering a pivotal week as traders await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision. The article argues that a recent relief rally driven mainly by softer U.S. jobs data has not changed the broader bearish setup. Policy is finely balanced: inflation remains elevated after the oil shock, but weak domestic demand and high unemployment argue for caution. Market expectations are split between a 25 bp hike and a hold, with banks divided on whether the RBNZ will tighten now or wait. For FX markets, the key issue is not just the decision but the forward guidance. Technically, NZD/USD remains capped below 0.5768 resistance, while a break under 0.5625 would likely extend the downtrend toward 0.5579 and potentially the 2025 low area. Overall, the piece suggests downside risks remain dominant unless the RBNZ delivers a clear hawkish surprise.