NZD Holds 0.5874 as Sticky 3.1% CPI Boosts 45% May RBNZ Hike Odds Despite Confidence Crash

NZD/USD steadied at 0.5874 after Q1 CPI surprised higher at 0.9% q/q (vs 0.8% exp) and 3.1% y/y (vs 2.9%), driving May RBNZ rate hike odds to 45% from 25-30%. Business confidence plunged to +1 from +39 amid Middle East tensions, but pricing intentions surged to +43 next quarter and non-tradables held at 3.5% y/y. Energy pressures like petrol +3.5% q/q and electricity +12.5% y/y reinforce inflation persistence, supporting NZD upside despite sentiment risks and potential July tightening.