NZD Gains as Markets Price Earlier, Larger RBNZ Rate Hikes

NZD/USD has strengthened above 0.6100 after markets rapidly repriced the RBNZ policy path toward earlier and larger hikes. The move follows the May 27 hawkish hold that left the OCR at 2.25% on a 3-3 split vote, with inflation now seen peaking at 4.3% in September 2026 and the end-2026 OCR forecast lifted to 2.8%. Subsequent comments from Governor Breman and Assistant Governor Silk confirmed the need for faster tightening, pushing July-hike odds above 90% and three increases by year-end. Despite downgraded growth forecasts, the tighter rate outlook has supported the kiwi and narrowed rate differentials versus the US dollar.