NZ business confidence slumps as Hormuz disruptions weigh on outlook and demand

New Zealand Q1 business confidence plunged, driven by geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz that lifted fuel costs and uncertainty. While domestic activity appears broadly flat, hiring and investment intentions weakened (net job cuts reported), and construction demand softened even as manufacturing held up. Inflation pressures are described as contained for now, so the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is still expected to start a gradual tightening cycle around July. The survey therefore sends a mixed signal: weaker growth and forward indicators limit the pace of rate hikes and likely cap NZD upside, but contained price pressures keep markets pricing some RBNZ tightening later in the year.