Nvidia: Jensen Huang Says We Should Be Selling Chips to China

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the Dwarkesh Podcast that U.S. export restrictions on high-end H20 chips simply redirect China’s AI spending to domestic competitors and hurt American firms. The company booked a $4.5 billion inventory charge in Q1 FY2026 tied to those restrictions and expects about $8 billion of H20 revenue to evaporate in Q2. Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 guidance — roughly a $78 billion revenue outlook — explicitly excludes Data Center compute revenue from China, creating a structural hole until policy shifts. The China AI accelerator market is projected to approach $50 billion, making access a major swing factor for Nvidia’s long-term revenue. Despite these headwinds, NVDA has returned about 77% over the past year and analysts’ consensus target is near $268, implying the market is pricing in a recovery if policy eases. Investors should treat China export policy as a key catalyst for NVDA’s future performance.