New Zealand’s economic recovery delayed but not derailed, finance minister says

New Zealand’s finance minister said the country’s economic recovery has been delayed by an oil shock tied to the Iran conflict but remains intact. Treasury scenarios show inflation could reach 7.4% in the 2025/26 fiscal year if oil averages $180/barrel, or about 3.9% if oil averages $110/barrel, highlighting upside inflation risk and weaker business and consumer sentiment. The comments signal potential pressure on the NZ dollar and monetary policy considerations if oil-driven inflation proves persistent, while the minister sought to reassure markets that extreme oil outcomes are unlikely.