Musk Lifts Tesla Stake to 20% Post-SpaceX IPO as Merger Odds Rise

Elon Musk exercised options to raise his Tesla voting power to nearly 20%, intensifying speculation of a SpaceX acquisition following the rocket firm’s $75 billion IPO. The narrative began May 26 with reports of internal merger talks and accelerated after SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell endorsed consolidation. Wedbush’s Dan Ives now assigns an 80-90% probability by early 2027, while prediction markets show 56% odds of a deal by May 2027, citing AI synergies and Tesla’s $45 billion cash balance offsetting SpaceX’s heavy burn rate. Ross Gerber recently called a merger a 'foregone conclusion.'