MSFT Bulls Champion 24x P/E Value Amid $190B AI Capex and Q3 Strength

Microsoft shares linger near $408, down 15.7% YTD in early May 2026, as $190B calendar-2026 capex guidance overshadows Q3 revenue of $82.9B (+18% YoY), Azure +40%, and $37B AI run rate (+123%). The downturn began March 4 with a $1T market cap wipeout after Q2 miss and 45% OpenAI concentration in $625B RPO backlog. April's amended OpenAI deal ditched exclusivity for royalty-free access and capped 20% revenue share, aiding margins despite custom-chip delays versus outperforming peers Alphabet (+23% YTD) and Amazon (+16%). Bulls view 24x forward P/E as a bargain if AI investments deliver returns.