MSFT at $408 Beckons Buyers Amid Capex Selloff, Analysts Eye 35% Upside

Microsoft stock hovers near $408, deemed a compelling entry after a ~5% post-Q3 selloff on record $31.9B capex and FY2026 guidance near $190B, despite a $627B backlog (+99% YoY) and $37B AI run rate (+123% YoY). Shares cratered 24% in Q1 2026—worst since 2008—on initial $146B AI capex fears and trims by Bridgewater (<1M shares) and D.E. Shaw (6.8M shares), but rallied on Malaysia's Microsoft Elevate AI partnership (80k learners), Q3 beat (revenue +18% to $82.9B, net income +23% to $31.8B), Tom Steyer's 15% stake hike to 2.2M shares, and PT upgrades including Benchmark's $525 and Goldman Sachs' $610. Consensus $560 target implies 35-41% upside.