Morgan Stanley Holds $415 PT as Tesla 2026 Capex Tops $25B, Grünheide Hires 1,000 for 20% Q3 Ramp

Tesla shares hover near $375-$380 as Morgan Stanley maintains Equal Weight at $415 PT, emphasizing 2026 capex exceeding $25B for AI, robotics, autonomy, and Grünheide Gigafactory hiring 1,000 workers for a 20% Q3 production ramp. The period opened bearishly with Q1 deliveries at 358k missing 365k estimates and JPMorgan's Sell at $145 PT, but shares rallied 8% to $393 on April 15 UBS Neutral $352 upgrade and AI5 chip tape-out. Q1 earnings beat forecasts ($22.4B revenue +16% YoY, $0.41 EPS, $1.44B FCF), though capex hikes from $20B triggered pullbacks amid mixed analyst shifts like DZ Sell-to-Hold $385 and Baird PT cut to $522.