Moody's Mark Zandi says job growth has declined since Trump's tariffs — and warns a recession may be next

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi argues that U.S. job growth has slowed since the April 2, 2025 tariffs (“Liberation Day”) and that rising inflation and higher commodity prices from the Iran war could push the economy into recession. His Vicious Cycle Index flags a potential downturn as weak payroll gains and accelerating inflation weigh on consumer spending. Key market implications: weaker labor-market momentum and persistent inflation (CPI above the Fed’s 2% target) increase recession risk, pressuring equities and elevating demand for inflation hedges such as gold. The piece notes gold’s record of $5,589.38 on Jan. 28, 2026 and a UBS/UBP forecast of $6,000/oz by year-end, and recommends diversification into real assets (gold IRAs, real estate, alternatives) to hedge portfolio risk.