Mizuho, JPMorgan Turn Bearish on Circle as USDC Economics Come Under Pressure

Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform and cut its price target to $50 from $85, citing rising competitive pressure on USDC economics from Open USD. JPMorgan also lowered estimates for Circle and Coinbase after the Hyperliquid revenue-sharing change, warning that the updated partnership structure could intensify competition and reduce stablecoin profit margins. Mizuho now expects higher distribution and transaction costs and meaningfully lower EBITDA, while Circle shares remain under pressure, having fallen more than 20% this year despite a modest close at $63.22. The article highlights growing concerns that Circle’s business model, which relies heavily on treasury-yield retention, may face structural margin compression if rivals and distribution partners push for better economics.