Microsoft Locks $625B RPO via $190B AI Capex, Nuclear PPA as Agentic AI Builds Momentum

Microsoft's latest commentary frames its $190B 2026 capex and $16B Three Mile Island nuclear PPA as strategies to secure $625B commercial RPO (up 110% YoY), providing multiyear revenue visibility amid agentic AI advances like Copilot Cowork. Post-Q3 earnings beat ($82.9B revenue +18% YoY, $4.27 EPS vs. $4.07 est., $37B AI run rate +123%, 20M Copilot seats +250%), shares dipped 4% on capex exceeding estimates by 23% ($25B from memory prices), sparking debates on margins. Analysts remain bullish, targeting $556 for 37% upside, viewing infra bets as long-term accretive despite near-term pressures.